Because some racial minorities have lower educational attainment, we find they are more vulnerable to being displaced by automation. tab. Hispanic workers, for instance, are overrepresented in food service roles and have the highest rate of potential displacement among all minority groups, at 25.5 percent (7.4 million individuals). The work highlighted in our 2019 Social Responsibility Report lay the foundation for our response, and our 2020 report will convey how we continue to rise to these and other global challenges. Policy makers and employers alike cannot ignore the implications if a large share of the population is falling behind. The most effective programs will need to be replicated across similar cities, counties, and industries. On the other end of the spectrum, the decade ahead could be a rocky one for rural America (interactive). While employment in categories such as office support and food service may decline, our scenario suggests strong job growth in healthcare, STEM occupations, creative fields, and business services. Cities and counties across the United States are entering this period of technological and labor market change from different starting points. To estimate market size, we analyzed Internet Retailer’s 2019 US Top 500 list of the largest e-commerce companies by sales, identifying the 16 that are primarily subscription-based. cookies. McKinsey uses cookies to improve site functionality, provide you with a better browsing experience, and to enable our partners to advertise to you. 2 25 megacities and high-growth This places us in the top 1 percent of more than 60,000 evaluated organizations across the globe. If you would like information about this content we will be happy to work with you. Although a tighter labor market may increase wage growth in the short term, it will take sustained growth to counter the trend of wage stagnation, which dates to the 1980s. Silver cities are riding a wave of growth as the retirement-age population swells. growing jobs. On the opposite side of the generational divide, some 11.5 million US workers over the age of 50 could be displaced by automation. Forging career pathways to help people move up and finding sources of future middle-wage jobs will be essential to sustaining the US middle class. The pace of disruption from automation will depend on how rapidly companies adopt the new technologies. But this is not a foregone conclusion. Low-growth and rural areas as a group account for 20 percent of jobs today but could drive as little as 3 percent of job growth through 2030. All levels of government, nonprofits, education providers, and industry associations can play a role here. We define middle-wage jobs as those in the middle 40 percent in the income distribution. As automation changes the world of work, governments, businesses, and members of the workforce can take action and adapt. Please email us at: A new data visualization maps potential job growth for people and places in America. Many of these places do not have the vibrancy, economic activity, or inflows of investment or people to create new jobs. Practical resources to help leaders navigate to the next normal: guides, tools, checklists, interviews and more. McKinsey refused to … We work with social sector and government organizations to improve the lives of citizens worldwide by helping solve the most pressing economic and social challenges. Employers will be the natural providers of training and continuous learning opportunities for many workers. Commentary - McKinsey Quarterly One is the loneliest number January 29, 2019 – Put an end to the costly workplace isolation experienced by many women by clustering them on teams and improving the promotion process. Some could manage to accelerate growth, but in a period of change and churn, others could slip into decline. Turning around places that have lost their economic dynamism is a multiyear journey, but it is possible. Offices once populated by armies of administrative assistants, research librarians, and payroll and data clerks now run with leaner support teams and more digital tools. Based on the median salary of jobs in 2017. The 2020 report is the third installment in McKinsey’s series of research that has been aimed at examining the business case for diversity in executive positions. Download the full report to explore the 10 themes which will define the global fashion industry in 2020. People create and sustain change. A common thread among shrinking roles is that they involve many routine or physical tasks. Individual companies can help to ease this strain by considering whether there is a business case for establishing operations in more affordable parts of the country that need the investment. may account for about 60 Our mission is to help leaders in multiple sectors develop a deeper understanding of the global economy. It will be important to create a wider variety of pathways from high school to work, perhaps through apprenticeship. The research is a snapshot of some surprising shifts in consumer behaviour that highlights the importance of adaptability and versatility. 2. Every community, from the most dynamic to the most distressed, faces economic development issues that need to be solved at the local and regional level. Select topics and stay current with our latest insights. More broadly, the day-to-day nature of work could change for nearly everyone as intelligent machines become fixtures in the American workplace. The growing acceptance of remote working models could be a positive trend for creating jobs in rural counties, whether full-time work-at-home employee roles or contract work. Embedding human principles into the nature of work--principles such as purpose and meaning, growth and passion, and collaboration and relationships--enables the social enterprise to continually reinvent itself on the back of perpetual disruption. We model a range of different adoption scenarios based on historical experience that take local wage differentials into account. Tens of millions of Americans can think back to their first jobs in retail or food service—roles that gave them valuable soft skills and experience that propelled them on their way. segments of the labor force face No amount of workforce retraining can solve the bigger challenge of lack of economic activity. Please use UP and DOWN arrow keys to review autocomplete results. Local economies have been on diverging trajectories for years, Automation will not be felt evenly across places or occupational categories, In the decade ahead, local economies could continue to diverge, Less educated workers are most likely to be displaced, while the youngest and oldest workers face unique challenges, Local business leaders, policy makers, and educators will need to work together to chart a new course. Overall, women represent 47 percent of the displaced workers in our midpoint automation scenario, while men are 53 percent. Learn about Something went wrong. Many occupations are likely to shrink through attrition and reduced hiring. Progress isn’t just slow. Partner Susan Lund explains why the impact of automation will play out differently depending on where you live. McKinsey & Co surveyed over 3,500 shoppers in the US, UK, China, Germany, and France for its 2020 Holiday Season report. Some of the people most likely to be affected are already living paycheck-to-paycheck. Employment in this segment could grow by 15 percent as seniors drive demand for healthcare and other services—and as more of them continue working past traditional retirement age. Some niche cities are also well positioned. We strive to provide individuals with disabilities equal access to our website. The next step is attracting investment, which does not have to come from within the United States. Unleash their potential. For these workers, governments and other stakeholders can help to make local labor markets more fluid and easier to navigate. Our model shows employment in low-wage jobs declining by 0.4 percentage point, while employment in the highest-wage jobs grows by 3.8 percentage points. Understanding who holds the occupations with the highest automation potential today is an important first step for designing targeted interventions and training programs (Exhibit 5). Each community will have to take inventory of its assets, such as available industrial space, natural attractions, local universities, and specialized workforce skills. hubs, plus their peripheries, But the growth of high-wage opportunities can be realized only if workers can obtain the necessary education and skills. connecting millions of The proportion of women at every level in corporate America has hardly changed. We use cookies essential for this site to function well. The picture is worst for the roughly 970 distressed Americana counties that are entering the decade in poor economic health. A new report from the McKinsey Global Institute, The future of work in America: People and places, today and tomorrow (PDF–4.41MB), analyzes more than 3,000 US counties and 315 cities and finds they are on sharply different paths. The pace of disruption from automation will depend on how rapidly companies adopt the new technologies. Unleash their potential. hereLearn more about cookies, Opens in new Learn how we work with private- and public-sector institutions on challenges created by growing pressure on resource systems and increasing environmental risk. McKinsey & Co. surveyed over 3,500 shoppers in the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Germany, and France for its 2020 Holiday Season report. The good news is that there is a growing tool kit of potential solutions, and many promising pilots are under way. Please use UP and DOWN arrow keys to review autocomplete results. Men, for example, make up the majority of drivers and assembly line workers, while administrative assistants and bookkeepers are predominantly female. Women in the Workplace is the largest study on the state of women in corporate America. We find that individuals with a high school degree or less are four times more likely to be in a highly automatable role than individuals with a bachelor’s degree or higher—and as much as 14 times more vulnerable than someone with a graduate degree. our use of cookies, and This annual report from McKinsey & Company and LeanIn.Org is the largest study of the state of women in corporate America. The next decade will bring every community new challenges—but also new opportunities to boost innovation, productivity, and inclusive growth. Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964. It drew on McKinsey’s in-depth analytical expertise, our work with leading healthcare organizations, and our understanding of healthcare systems … Our model shows some local economies experiencing more disruption than others. Differentials in the cost of living, ties with family and friends, and a growing cultural divide all partially explain these patterns, but more research is needed to understand these patterns. Update, Dec. 3, 2019: This story has been updated to include additional comments from McKinsey. McKinsey Quarterly. ompanies report that they are highly committed to gender diversity. Flip the odds. Press enter to select and open the results on a new page. The coming wave of automation will affect some of the largest Practical resources to help leaders navigate to the next normal: guides, tools, checklists, interviews and more, Learn what it means for you, and meet the people who create it, Inspire, empower, and sustain action that leads to the economic development of Black communities across the globe, Download the report, or read on to explore highlights of our impact from 2019. Training and education can no longer end when workers are in their twenties and carry them through the decades. Rural outlier counties should continue to sustain growth through natural resources and tourism, although they may manage job growth of only 3 percent. While 6.1 percent of Americans moved between counties or states in 1990, only 3.6 percent did so in 2017. Growing economic divergence might have been expected to prompt more people to move from distressed areas to thriving job markets. Many efforts are under way to centralize and standardize information on skills, job postings, and credentials. A culture of inclusion Our analysis suggests that by 2030, they could decline as a share of national employment by 3.4 percentage points. Because these roles are distributed across the country, no community will be immune from automation-related displacement. White workers have a potential displacement rate of 22.4 percent, and Asian-American workers have the lowest rate at 21.7 percent. Final Report | February 2019. These differences are explained by each county’s and city’s current industry and occupation mix as well as wages. ... and Labrador engaged McKinsey & Company to identify further opportunities for the Province’s economic growth, bringing an independent and global perspective to challenge the current thinking and surface new opportunities. unique risks. For megacities and high-growth hubs, the priorities may be connecting disadvantaged populations with new opportunities, adding affordable housing, and improving transportation. All workers will need to adapt as machines take over routine and some physical tasks and as demand grows for work involving socioemotional, creative, technological, and higher cognitive skills. Our approach to social responsibility includes empowering our people to give back to their communities, operating our firm in ways that are socially responsible and environmentally sustainable, and working with our clients to intentionally address societal challenges. Based on the median salary of jobs in 2017. Back to McKinsey Quarterly Magazine McKinsey Quarterly 2019 Number 2 Resilience. Our model indicates anemic 1 percent employment growth over the entirety of the next decade in the more than 1,100 rural Americana counties. Geography itself can be a barrier to connecting to new opportunities, given the declines in Americans’ mobility. 3 across age brackets, but Policy choices, along with increased public and private investment in people and in the places that need it, can create more inclusive growth. Our mission is to help leaders in multiple sectors develop a deeper understanding of the global economy. Workforce skills have been a growing concern in the United States for many years. In customer service and retail sales, for example, counter attendants and rental clerks may decline, but more workers could be added to help customers in stores or to staff distribution centers. The Rural Innovation Initiative, recently launched in nine communities nationwide, is building outposts for workers in the downtowns of rural cities, aiming to spur professional collaboration and nurture tech talent across the country. Discussion Paper - McKinsey Global Institute Administrative assistants, bill collectors, and bookkeepers lost a combined 226,000 jobs from 2012 to 2017. cookies, download the full list of locations in each segment, McKinsey_Website_Accessibility@mckinsey.com, less than 5 percent of occupations can be automated in their entirety, women represent 47 percent of the displaced workers in our midpoint automation scenario, representation of women in the tech sector. Because there is a national benefit to improving labor market fluidity, policy makers might consider providing relocation assistance or tax credits. By contrast, trailing cities have had virtually no job growth for a decade—and the counties of Americana and distressed Americana have 360,000 fewer jobs in 2017 than they did in 2007. Addresses business resilience and how companies can prepare for the next economic downturn, explores the ins and outs of effective decision making, and takes a hard look at talent in the workplace. Protect Independent Journalism This story you’ve just finished was funded by our readers. Digital upends old models. This approach reveals that the differences between local economies across the country are more nuanced than a simple rural-urban divide or regional variations. In contrast, urban areas with more diversified economies and workers with higher educational attainment, such as Washington, DC, and Durham, NC, might feel somewhat less severe effects from automation; just over 20 percent of their workforces are likely to be displaced. Many of the specific jobs most at risk from automation skew heavily toward one gender or the other. McKinsey revenue increased from $10 billion in 2018 to $10.5 billion in 2019, a (5.0%) increase. Automation will affect workers This work and the report Detailed information on the use of cookies on this Site, and how you can decline them, is provided in our cookie policy. In total, these companies brought in $7.5 billion in revenue in 2018, up from $5.8 billion in 2017. Just 25 cities (megacities and high-growth hubs, plus their urban peripheries) have accounted for more than two-thirds of job growth in the last decade (Exhibit 1). our use of cookies, and occupational categories in the US economy. Addressing the affordable housing shortage in the fastest-growing urban areas would enable people who do want to move for better opportunities to do so (and would create demand in the construction sector at the same time). But in general, cities are more diversified and have more resources and investment flows on which to draw. Much of this is due to women’s heavy representation in health professions and personal care work—and some of these roles are low-paying. Population growth has also tilted toward urban America. Posted By Najib Jan 05, 2019 03:47 Business The Ministry of Economy has uploaded the McKinsey full report entitled “Lebanon Economic Vision” on its website. Midcareer workers need to continue paying their bills while they train for the next chapter in their careers; they require short, flexible courses that follow the boot camp model, teaching new skills in weeks or months rather than years. Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964. automation age will be Even as some occupations decline, the US economy should continue to grow and create new jobs in the years to 2030. The US labor market looks markedly different today than it did two decades ago. July 23, 2019 . Turning around places that have lost their economic dynamism is a multiyear journey, but it is possible. Portable benefits—tied to the worker rather than the employer—could offer stability to people who need to move between opportunities and geographies as well as covering the millions of Americans who are self-employed or independent workers. The Kinsey Reports on car parts prices have been around since 1990 – probably conjuring up visions of great piles of spark plugs, radiators, headlights and fenders, - all of which are duly price tagged and compared in a large chart. People create and sustain change. Download the report, or read on to explore highlights of our impact from 2019 Download the report (PDF) Our social responsibility by the numbers The vast majority (429 counties) are rural areas in the Americana and distressed Americana segments. Our mission is to help leaders in multiple sectors develop a deeper understanding of the global economy. Despite new occupations and overall job growth, one worrisome trend could continue: the hollowing out of middle-wage jobs. 1 We use cookies essential for this site to function well. The trends outlined in this report could widen existing disparities between high-growth cities and struggling rural areas, and between high-wage workers and everyone else. We are honored to receive the Platinum rating from EcoVadis, the leading social responsibility rating organization. Report - McKinsey Global Institute India’s turning point: An economic agenda to spur growth and jobs August 26, 2020 – A clarion call is sounding for India to put growth on a sustainably faster track and meet the aspirations of its growing workforce. both the youngest and oldest Year-end forecasts seem more grounded when accompanied by efforts to put the existing year in context. But even the most thriving cities will need to connect marginalized populations with better opportunities. Please click "Accept" to help us improve its usefulness with additional cookies. Roughly 14.7 million workers under age 34 could be displaced by automation; almost half of them are in roles with high separation rates, so employers lack incentives to retrain and redeploy them. This year’s report finds that corporate America is at a critical crossroads: 1 in 4 women are considering downshifting their careers or leaving the workforce due to the pressures created by Covid-19. Automation will affect workers across age brackets, but both the youngest and oldest segments of the labor force face unique risks. China accounted for more than half of global growth in luxury spending from 2012 to 2018 and is expected to contribute 65 percent of global additional spending by 2025, according to the firm’s China Luxury Report 2019. Reinvent your business. Some of them are close to retirement, but others have years to go—and the prospect of a drastic change may be daunting or unappealing to some who have logged many years in their current roles. Learn more about cookies, Opens in new Subsidies and tax incentives can be part of the tool kit, but they need to be backed by a rigorous business case. Wages and purchasing power are real concerns. Our purpose as a firm is to help create positive, enduring change in the world. Nearly 40 percent of US jobs are currently in occupational categories that could shrink between now and 2030. Report - McKinsey Global Institute The future of women at work: Transitions in the age of automation June 4, 2019 – Concerted and creative new solutions are needed to enable women to seize new opportunities in the automation age; without them, women may fall further behind in the world of work. We analyze the automation potential of every job by looking at how many of its constituent activities can be handled by currently demonstrated technologies. The work highlighted in our 2019 Social Responsibility Report lay the foundation for our response, and our 2020 report will convey how we continue to rise to these and other global challenges. Reinvent your business. High-growth hubs, small powerhouses, and silver cities have grown by more than 10 percent since 2007, and most urban peripheries are also growing. But the occupational mix of the economy is evolving and could do so at an even faster pace in the decade ahead. collaboration with select social media and trusted analytics partners These losses will not necessarily manifest as sudden mass unemployment. In August 2019, Kering CEO François-Henri Pinault spearheaded an industry-wide pact to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. This has already been occurring in office support roles, for instance. The day-to-day nature of work could change for nearly everyone as The COVID Response Center draws on what McKinsey and others have learned to provide leaders with resources to help reset their organizations and communities. Even in the nation’s most prosperous cities, large populations are already struggling to find a place in the new economy and keep up with the rising cost of living. Residents have been moving out of megacities, stable cities, America’s makers, and trailing cities. While all areas of the country lost employment during the downturn, job growth since then has been a tale of two Americas. percent of net job growth by McKinsey Insights - Get our latest thinking on your iPhone, iPad, or Android device. That’s what we found in Women in the Workplace 2018, a study conducted by McKinsey McKinsey Quarterly. The communities in the mixed middle segment need to accelerate economic growth and focus on entrepreneurship and skills development. Immigration has more than offset domestic population losses in megacities and stable cities, but populations in rural Americana counties grew by less than 1 percent—and distressed Americana is shrinking. intelligent machines become fixtures in the American workplace. Use minimal essential RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE . For the 2019 report, they collected information from over 300 organizations employing a total of 13 million people. But this greatly oversimplifies the weight of this decision for individuals who may have deep personal and family ties to the places where they live, as well as economic barriers to leaving. But that commitment has not translated into meaningful progress. At the high end of the displacement spectrum are 512 counties, home to 20.3 million people, where more than 25 percent of workers could be displaced. In a more technology-driven world, job-matching efforts can be aided by a range of new digital tools and should run on easily accessible digital platforms. The mixed middle cities are positioned for modest jobs gains. The old model of front-loading education early in life needs to give way to lifelong learning. But the national results contain a wide spectrum of outcomes. Our mission is to help leaders in multiple sectors develop a deeper understanding of the global economy. Our model suggests that these areas could experience net job loss, with their employment bases shrinking by 3 percent. displaced workers to new, A new report from the McKinsey Global Institute, The future of work in America: People and places, today and tomorrow (PDF–4.41MB), analyzes more than 3,000 US counties and 315 cities and finds they are on sharply different paths. The challenge is not fighting against technology but preparing US workers to succeed alongside it. Until recently, most research on the potential effects of automation, including our own, has focused on the national-level effects. We define middle-wage jobs as those in the middle 40 percent in the income distribution. The skills needed in fast-growing STEM roles, in particular, are continuously evolving. For rural counties, the road is tougher. Our 13 archetypes can be grouped into five segments with common patterns: The economic performance of these segments has been diverging for decades, and that trend accelerated after the Great Recession. Press enter to select and open the results on a new page. Millions of jobs could be phased out even as new ones are created. Please click "Accept" to help us improve its usefulness with additional cookies. Why We Performed This Audit. tab. Annual Revenue ( $ ) McKinsey revenue was $10.5 b in FY, 2019 which is a (5.0%) year over year increase from the previous period. 2030. Please try again later. Helping create positive, enduring change in the world. For African Americans, the potential displacement rate is 23.1 percent (4.6 million individuals). It is possible to turn this period of technological change into an occasion to create more rewarding jobs and build better learning systems and career pathways that serve more Americans. But millions who need to switch employers or change occupations will need training options outside the workplace. hereLearn more about cookies, Opens in new Most transformations fail. Our previous work ran multiple scenarios regarding the pace and extent of adoption. College-centric towns may see 11 percent employment growth over the next decade; they can build on their well-educated talent pools. Even as some jobs decline, the US economy will continue to create others—and technologies themselves will give rise to new occupations. This analysis does not account for different wage growth or decline over time. The 25 megacities and high-growth hubs, plus their peripheries, may account for about 60 percent of net job growth by 2030, although they have just 44 percent of the population. The report also benefited enormously . 1. For them, even a short period of disruption could provoke tremendous stress. We model a range of different adoption scenarios based on historical experience that take local wage differentials into account. The United States can improve outcomes nationwide by connecting displaced workers with new opportunities, equipping people with the skills they need to succeed, revitalizing distressed areas, and supporting workers in transition. To thrive in an environment that can shift from moment to moment, organizations must become distinctly human at the core. 3. Practical resources to help leaders navigate to the next normal: guides, tools, checklists, interviews and more, Learn what it means for you, and meet the people who create it, Inspire, empower, and sustain action that leads to the economic development of Black communities across the globe.

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